Confused? bear / bull, where is the line in the sand?


Everybody is saying the key to market understanding is to learn price movements, price is everything, price patterns are showing the way. THIS is TRUE. It takes time and dedication.

Ok, so now price is going up, looks like we have a bottom and ready to rock.  A TL is always waiting to stop the price. Or a rising $….

Lets look at RUA3k 60min:

All indicators on 60min look bullish.  At least tomorrow we may have a small bullish day.

Is this really bullish? Let’s look at RUA3k 1D:

The RUA 3K 1D looks almost super bearish, why almost? Because even if hist, osc, sentiment (at46 horizontal) momentum (bearish pointing down),,,, the MCCellan Vol osc is almost at O, pointing UP.  The green vol bars the last 2 days were at the same level as the selling bars a few days back.  Now look at the TL I drew on the 60 min.  It looks like the price is following that TL, target ES 1334 for tomorrow.

There was no buy volume increase on the 1D, selling volume is still high.

Let’s see 2D RUA 3K:

Is the 2D showing more clarity?

  • hist is negative and with no decreasing negative bars
  • osc is still negative and points down
  • no buy volume, sell volume elevated
  • sentiment at 46 pointing down
  • momentum negative,
  • slow osc just got negative
  • McClellan vol osc is negative but points up, not yet green

Based on 60 min / 1D / 2D is looks like we are in bearish market, with short term UP, IT down. Where or when will the tide turn?  It looks that now we need to verify or draw a trend line that will tell us the next step. I think the TL I drew on the 60 min is a good TL for this purpose. That TL is 1334 – 1333 on ES.

Let’s see if the $ supports this theory:

USD 2D:

Indicators:

  • hist is going down / osc is easing as well, but still UP
  • the buy volume is decreasing, no sell volume on 2D
  • MVO and momentum are slowly going down meaning decreasing bullish volume
  • sentiment is at 43, horizontal
  • slow osc is still UP
  • mccellan vol osc just got negative

USD 1D:

USD 1D:

  • hist is at O, easing but not negative, it had  some small tests on the negative side
  • osc is keeping UP, green
  • buy volume going back UP
  • sentiment at 45
  • momentum at O
  • mccellan vol osc just turned negative

$ supports the idea of small high prices tomorrow for stock market, meaning ST, $ is bearish, IT is bullish

RUA 3K may have a small positive day tomorrow, $ supports this.  Now over the weekend, the high time frame may manifest itself.  In the US is a long weekend.

In the paper account I have now 2 positions in energy XLE.  I took the positions based on this:

The chart looks bullish on all indicators.  Except MVO, every indicator supports a bull on energy for now.  These are positions to test the exists.  I took them , one 3 days ago and another one this morning on the dip.  I plan to exit on any sign of elevated sell volume on daily charts.

Based on volume charts, the bears are in control.  One of these days a light will strike one way or the other, but it looks like volume charts supports the idea of a strike on the down side.

Except energy, $ and gold, everything looks bearish.

Tomorrow if we hit that TL, I plan to take a short around 1334 ES. I will short IWM, RUA 2k.

For the short I will look at Mccellan vol osc on 1D $ and RUA3K and on buy/sell volume for both $ and RUA 3K

This is for now paper account as I need to go through a bear/ bull cycle to see if I am disciplined enough to take the signals as I see them.

Good Luck,

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Categories: Miss Market

Still bearish, but money has to move somewhere, but where?


Hi,

The market is still bearish, some sectors are receiving money but the market is not safe:

RUA 2D:

On 2 days, the selling was not big if we look at the volume bars.

This plays 2 ways: first thing is that the sellers are not moving to the exits as someone would expect based on the bearish news from Europe, and second maybe it is too much complacency in the market, so we need more volume before a bottom is put in.

Indicators:

  • sentiment at 43, points down
  • momentum in red, points down
  • hist and osc are red but small bars, as I said no volume on the down side
  • selling volume increases and buying vol at O
  • McClellan osc is red and points down

RUA 1D:

Indicators:

  • sentiment at 42, horizontal
  • momentum red , it is horizontal
  • osc and hist are red but slowly going towards to the upper side
  • the selling vol is not elevated, no buying vol.
  • McClellan vol osc is red and horizontal

As I said, stock market is bearish but with complacent or not scared bulls.

USD 1D:

The USD does not have a lot of energy to the upside for now compared with last week:

  • Sentiment is at 40, horizontal
  • no sell volume, the buy volume just got more infusion the last 2-3 days, but still points down
  • momentum is green not elevated, but green
  • McClellan vol osc points down to O

Compared with the stock market, USD is bullish, but with decreasing energy.

Gold:

Gold is bullish, or close to being bullish:

  • sentiment at 71, UP
  • momentum negative, at -11%
  • hist and osc green, small green
  • buy vol just crossed sell volume
  • McClellan vol osc is green and points UP

From what we saw until now, gold is bullish

Last week I mentioned, Energy was receiving money, let’s see it now:

To me it looks like the Energy sector has good volume:

  • hist is green, small but green, osc is at O, points UP
  • buy volume just crossed sell volume, buy signal
  • sentiment points UP and it is at 47
  • momentum is at 0, points UP
  • McClellan vol osc points UP, almost green

So on 1D, Energy looks ready for bull, let’s see 2D:

Energy 2D does not look bullish yet:

  • sentiment at horizontal, at 49
  • momentum is at O, points UP
  • McClellan vol osc is at O, points UP
  • hist starts to decrease bearish bars
  • MVO is losing bearish momentum

Based on 2D and 1D, I would say that Energy will start sprinting higher once the market takes a pause or if the bear loses steam or if the $ takes a break here.

Energy and Gold look bullish on 1D, maybe the signal is that the market does not trust the $ to go UP without a small correction.

Now, are we ready to crash, or do we stand a chance to go UP again?

Let’s look at this chart, NYAD, advance/decline cumulative:

In the past when we crashed, the nyad was following spx, now we can see that nyad is still above the MA50 even if SPX is down from 1373. Unless the NYAD starts to break right now, the NYAD looks like it will attract SPX to the upside.

Let’s see NYMO and SPXA50:

and

Both NYMO and SPXA50 look like they are at an area where we may have a bounce or a change to the upside.

I know right now everything looks like it will fall down, but we are close to a bounce at least.

If the market finds a bottom around 1300 SPX, Energy will be a good sector for a bullish move.

Gold is already on the move.

I bought one unit of XLE in the paper account and I plan to buy another one if the selling volume goes down.

I plan to buy one unit of Gold tomorrow, GLD.

Good luck…

Categories: Uncategorized

$ cool off, Energy heat up


Hi,

It looks like the $ is taking some cool air.   It was overheated and now it is cooling off.

The market had some energy today.  And Energy got some of the money.

USD 1D:

The mighty $, seems to be cooling off:

  • sentiment points down, is it at 30
  • mccellan vol osc is negative and points down
  • MVO is at O
  • we have a hist cross on the down side
  • no sell volume / the buy volume is declining but it is elevated
$ ichimoku 60 min:
As yesterday, at the close, the $ is at 75.50. it visited the first support I outlined in the chart during the last 24 hr.
RUA 1D:
RUA3K is still unsafe:
  • selling volume more elevated than buy vol
  • sentiment is down, at 40 and horizontal
  • momentum is still negative
  • hist and osc slightly negative
  • the mccellan vol osc is at O
One sector that looks like it is getting money is energy.
Energy 2D:
On 2D, energy:
  • elevated sell volume
  • sentiment points UP , it is at 41
  • momentum starts to go UP
  • MVO still negative
  • hist and osc negative
Energy 1D:
On the daily, the energy looks like it is attracting money:
  • sell volume started to go down, buy volume UP from O
  • sentiment points UP, it is at 50
  • momentum is at O and points UP
  • McClellan vol osc is at O and points UP
  • we are close to have hist cross on the positive side
I will say Energy is bullish if the buy volume increases tomorrow.
Gold, GLD, 1D:
For now gold does not have a lot of decision:
  • elevated sell volume / buy volume is not O, somebody is buying
  • sentiment is horizontal at 40
  • momentum is pointing UP
  • hist and osc are red slightly, close to O
  • RSI almost close to go UP over the low line
  • Mccellan vol osc almost at O
Conclusion:
Market is taking a breather, RUA and Gold are not bullish, they are unsafe.
Energy sector is attracting money and it may become a bullish sector tomorrow
Good luck…
Categories: Uncategorized

BOW, is this true?

May 18, 2011 1 comment

Hi all,

All of a sudden, BOW is the name of the game.  Why?  Is the $ falling?  Is the Fed printing in force?  Who knows, I guess old habits die hard.

BOW = buying on weakness

Is BOW good?  It is only , and only, if you know what you are doing.

VTA is not a timing mechanism, it is a system that puts you in sync with a trend.  So let’s see the charts:

$ futures, Ichimoku, daily:

If this is not advertising for fibonnaci and ichimoku, let’s see the next chart, that one sure is. 60 min $ futures:

At the clsoe today we were at 75.55 which was the support on 60 min. Now a few hours later, $ lost that support.  The short lines on the 60 min chart are the next lines of support for the $.

On the daily we can see that Fibonacci and ichimoku defined pretty well the last 3 years trends for the $.  The green oval is the next support, 75.

Now let’s see the VTA side of things:

USD 2D:

On 2D, $ is bullish but a little extended to the upper side:

  • The sentiment is at 50 and no longer pointing UP
  • The MVO shows exhaution
  • the mccellan vol osc is at O and pointing down
  • we had some selling on the $ the last 2 days

$ daily:

On the daily $:

  • MVO is at O from upper levels
  • sentiment is horizontal for the last 3 days at 45
  • mccellan vol osc is at O and declining
  • momentum is declining
  • the buying volume is still high
  • the hist is close to start a bearish cycle, but the bullish volume may push for a new bull cycle
Based on the 2D and 1 D, it looks like we have a cooling off period for the $. this period will be probably short, like 1-2 days. To be longer, the buying volume needs to go down fast.

RUA3K 2D:

RUA 2days shows a full bearish cycle going on:

  • sentiment pointing down at 42
  • negative momentum
  • mccellan vol osc pointing down
  • hist and osc starting a new bearish cycle

I want to point out the 3 periods (2days bars) cycle in bearish volume bars.   Almost every time we had 3 red bars on 2 days charts, we had a relief rally for 1-2 days.  We need to pay attention, if the rally is not only for relief, the McClellan vol osc , sentiment ,buying vol and momentum need to start going up and fast, in the next 1-2 days (I showed in the past what happened when the bull was in full force).  Based on the high selling volume and the $ cycle I am not hopeful for this possibility but it is a scenario nevertheless.

RUA 3K 1 D:

The 1D is still bearish:

  • selling volume higher, just a little , than buying volume
  • momentum and McClellan vol osc are in red and pointing down
  • hist and osc slightly negative

I’ll say that if any bullish scenario is about to happen, it needs to increase the buying volume and fast, tomorrow !

Let’s see gold , GLD:

Gold is a bearish as well, we have only a bullish sign, small sign, elevated bullish volume (not higher than selling, but still elevated, not at O).  For any direction, the selling volume and buying volume need to increase the distance between them.

It is almost obvious now for everybody that follows Salad posts that gold is bullish if the RUA is bullish or if the $ goes down.

Gold 60 min :

For any gold bugs out there, gold needs to clear out 1495, 1500 and the biggest one 1508. Now for any gold bull, 1473 was great level to enter today.

Conclusion:

Based on the Ichimoku and Fibonnaci retracements levels, the $ is about to suffer a correction.  First target for $ is 75 , then 74.73 and last one 74 unless a full retracement happens at 73.18.

Based on the elevated selling volume on RUA and Gold, this $ correction is supposed to be short lived.

For any sustained correction in $, the buying volume need to come into the market for RUA and Gold. So by tomorrow evening we should see buying volume come in the market for any bullish scenario to hold water.

As a parenthesis, I may be mistaken but it looks Ichimoku works well with Fibonnaci: like maybe you do not know where to start fibonnaci or where to end it.  Fibonnaci helps.

So now we have VTA and Ichimoku and Fibonnaci to help us to clear the water.

Is the water cleared?  Please comment with an answer.

Good luck !!!

Categories: Uncategorized

Bearish signs everywhere


Hi,

I closed all positions this week and I plan to stay this way for some time. I need a rest from risk.   At the same time I need to study more the signals and my take on the market.

I will continue to blog.

Now let’s see where we are:

USD 1D:

As you can see, $ is bullish all the way:

  • we have positive history, declining, but still positive
  • the MVO is very high
  • momentum is high and points UP
  • Sentiment is in the middle, around 50

Let’s see USD 60 min:

On the 60 min we can see the $ close to the next bearish cycle. The few last bearish cycles were not effective, meaning we have as you already know, a bullish $. The next bearish $ cycle will give us a hint about the 1D bull cycle continuation.

The target for $ is the 200 DMA: around 78.35.

RUA 3K 2D:

On 2D, RUA 3k is bearish:

  • selling vol up, buying vol down
  • sentiment points down
  • momentum down
  • hist and osc about to go negative

RUA 3K 1D:

On 1D , RUA 3K had a bull try:

  • selling vol decreased
  • buying vol increased and then stopped
  • we have a small positive hist and osc about to turn positive
  • sentiment is at 50 and momentum is still positive

Based on the 2D and 1D we may have a double bear developing on the 1D cycles. To negate this possibility we need elevated buying vol on the 1D chart.

Gold GLD:

On the 2D cycle, GLD is bearish:

  • momentum is down to the max
  • sentiment is at 41 and horizontal
  • almost no buy vol and selling vol increase
  • the MVO is going UP. This is bullish.
  • hist and osc are negative

GLD 1D:

The 1D GLD:

  • hist and osc are slowly increasing
  • the buy vol is being eliminated, sell vol decreasing
  • the small positive MVO is decreasing
  • sentiment is UP at 67, momentum is negative
  • RSI is pointing down

It looks like the gold wants to keep UP but nobody is buying with force anymore. Like with RUA 3K we will know tomorrow if buying volume comes into the market.  If the buying volume is eliminated tomorrow, then a new bear cycle may start.

Gold miners 1D:

This is a bearish chart.  As you can see no buy volume at all.

Financials 1D:

Finacials have a bearish chart:

  • There is some buy volume , but the sell volume is about to cross UP.
  • The sentiment points down, momentum is negative
  • hist and osc are negative
  • please see the volume bars (red and small)

It looks the chart is bearish but no real volume in buying or selling.  I wonder why so small volume, looks like no buyers but at the same time, the sellers are nervous or are selling quietly under the hood?

Conclusion:

The market is UNSAFE.  RUA, Gold, Financials, Energy are all in bear mode. $ is bullish.  The miners need a life line right now.

On SPX, 1329 and 1295 are points to watch.

For IWM, 50dMA, 82.90, and quarterly pivot, 81.80 are targets for the sell side.

Unless we see buying volume coming into the market, we are very close to start a new bearish cycle for both gold and stock market.

Good luck…

Categories: Uncategorized

Discipline, the only help a trader has

May 10, 2011 2 comments

Hi everybody,

The carnage in Silver made a huge scar on my brain. It was scary. I have a small account, so no real damage was done. Until I can demonstrate good discipline, my account stays small.

I sold almost half of my Silver positions close to 46-47, but I kept the remaining.  Which makes me stupid and undisciplined.  Overall I have 20% profit, but I had 150% at the high.

I thank Salad for everything.  He is a good person to show his system to the world.

The lessons I learned from the carnage are:

  • the VTA is a very good system, only if the signals (buy and sell) are followed without thinking or hoping.
  • The correlations between markets work in the context of VTA analysis;  when the $ buy volume increased, it was eveident what will happen to precious metals…
  • Did I mention discipline? I think so, but let this be a remainder, the signals are to be taken and respected if one would like to stay in this business.
  • as Salad said: Buy when others cry and sell when noise is too big around, and others cheer. Let’s go to charts

Lets go to charts:

USD 1D:

The USD is bullish, with some divergences:

  • no sell volume, buy vol ATH
  • the hist and osc are very bullish
  • the sentiment is under 50, even during the huge rise, the sentiment was not over 50
  • the MVO is pointing down, so no fuel for a fast rise for now
  • the McCllelan vol osc just went negative

USD 60 min.

The USD almost finished a 60 min bearish cycle, but:

  • no selling or buying volume
  • sentiment points down and it is close to be under 50
  • the RSI is down
  • the Mccllelan vol osc is close to go negative

So overall, the USD is bullish (duh!) but with divergences that may help it going down in the ST.

RUA 2000;  we used RUA2000 to signal trouble in stock market, it is not 100% reliable, mening a signal needs to be given by RUA3000, but it worked to signal the fall so it may signal a bullish stock market as well.  Let’s see it:

Everything on RUA2000 is bullish:

  • bullish vol elevated
  • MVO had a tiny green point upwards
  • sentiment points UP, momentum is green
  • RSI points UP

RUA 3000:

If we compare both charts, Rua2000 with Rua3000, we can see that the RUA3000 is almost bullish, we just need another day with more buy volume. The last 3 days, the volume was smaller than usual, but given the fall in the stock market and commodities, I find normal that some money is afraid to come back in.

Gold miners 1D:

The gold miners chart is bearish, all signals show bearish signals. I have 2 scenarios:

  • we may have a short squeeze one of these days and then a more bullish scenario for the miners.
  • or the chart signals that the correction from the lows for gold and silver does not have the power to go too high, meaning we may enter a range market for the gold and silver, or even that silver may fall more (this is Salad’s scenario I guess).

Gold1D:

The chart looks to have bullish implications in the ST:

  • sentiment points UP, it is at 55
  • Mccllelan vol osc has a green point,
  • MVO is at O, form a deep negative value
  • the momentum is almost green, pointing UP
  • the volume bars are small but no smaller than before the correction.  Some of this volume is from short covering.
  • the hist and osc are negative
  • the sell volume is still elevated and at an extreme value

My guess is that the gold will go higher from here. I may see what I want to see, but for me, the huge sell volume made the hist, osc and sell volume red line to be at extreme levels.  So now we need to see where this bounce stops.  A lot of people wait in line for a retest of the lows in Silver and Gold.  The question is too many?

For now the $ is the key, the stock market had smaller volume but not very small and the same can be said about gold.

I plan to sell the remaining silver positions when we get a little more optimism in the gold market. For now I am closely monitoring USD, RUA and gold.

Categories: Uncategorized

May2 – end of Silver rally?


Hi,

You already know, Silver is in correction mode. We dont know if the rally ended at 50, most probably no, but in the mean time how do we look?

USD 1D:

On the 1day chart, $ is almost bearish:

  • selling volume elevated (looks like oversold)
  • MVO negative
  • hist negative
  • sentiment points UP
  • Mclellan vol osc pints UP, not yet positive

Overall, the $ on 1D looks bearish but it may have a bullish day tomorrow.

Let’s see USD 60 min:

On 60 min, it looks like $ may start a bullish cycle tomorrow:

  • the MVO is positive and elevated
  • volume bars were small, not big
  • sentiment points UP
  • no selling volume

Based on the 1D and 60 min chart I think we may have small bull cycle on @ for the next hours. Unless Benny trows again with $, the PM correction will continue for at least next hours. the correction should be small beased on the small volume bars. More like oversold bullish cycle. I think before this cycle ends, $ will print 72 or a little bit less.

Gold 1D (GLD):

On daily, gold looks bullish:

  • osc and hist positive
  • the MVO is elevated and positive
  • sentiment and momentum are positive and both point down
  • the RSI points down

Overall, gold looks like is in a small correction.

Silver (SLV) 1D:

Silver is in correction mode:

  • hist about to cross
  • osc points down
  • the selling vol started to be elevated
  • the Mcclellan vol osc about to go negative

Based on the chart, silver is in correction mode. We already know that the silver margin was raised last night. based on the huge drop last night a lot of people trimmed down their position today.

We need to wait and see how will be the reaction tomorrow. My guess is that the correction will continue but on a smaller scale. I plan to buy gold once the correction is done. We need a few days to cool off.

I sold one unit of SIL ath today. (27.81). I sold half of the 2x etf hzu as well(at 54.65, 1$ under the today’s high).

Categories: Miss Market