Home > Miss Market > Confused? bear / bull, where is the line in the sand?

Confused? bear / bull, where is the line in the sand?


Everybody is saying the key to market understanding is to learn price movements, price is everything, price patterns are showing the way. THIS is TRUE. It takes time and dedication.

Ok, so now price is going up, looks like we have a bottom and ready to rock.  A TL is always waiting to stop the price. Or a rising $….

Lets look at RUA3k 60min:

All indicators on 60min look bullish.  At least tomorrow we may have a small bullish day.

Is this really bullish? Let’s look at RUA3k 1D:

The RUA 3K 1D looks almost super bearish, why almost? Because even if hist, osc, sentiment (at46 horizontal) momentum (bearish pointing down),,,, the MCCellan Vol osc is almost at O, pointing UP.  The green vol bars the last 2 days were at the same level as the selling bars a few days back.  Now look at the TL I drew on the 60 min.  It looks like the price is following that TL, target ES 1334 for tomorrow.

There was no buy volume increase on the 1D, selling volume is still high.

Let’s see 2D RUA 3K:

Is the 2D showing more clarity?

  • hist is negative and with no decreasing negative bars
  • osc is still negative and points down
  • no buy volume, sell volume elevated
  • sentiment at 46 pointing down
  • momentum negative,
  • slow osc just got negative
  • McClellan vol osc is negative but points up, not yet green

Based on 60 min / 1D / 2D is looks like we are in bearish market, with short term UP, IT down. Where or when will the tide turn?  It looks that now we need to verify or draw a trend line that will tell us the next step. I think the TL I drew on the 60 min is a good TL for this purpose. That TL is 1334 – 1333 on ES.

Let’s see if the $ supports this theory:

USD 2D:

Indicators:

  • hist is going down / osc is easing as well, but still UP
  • the buy volume is decreasing, no sell volume on 2D
  • MVO and momentum are slowly going down meaning decreasing bullish volume
  • sentiment is at 43, horizontal
  • slow osc is still UP
  • mccellan vol osc just got negative

USD 1D:

USD 1D:

  • hist is at O, easing but not negative, it had  some small tests on the negative side
  • osc is keeping UP, green
  • buy volume going back UP
  • sentiment at 45
  • momentum at O
  • mccellan vol osc just turned negative

$ supports the idea of small high prices tomorrow for stock market, meaning ST, $ is bearish, IT is bullish

RUA 3K may have a small positive day tomorrow, $ supports this.  Now over the weekend, the high time frame may manifest itself.  In the US is a long weekend.

In the paper account I have now 2 positions in energy XLE.  I took the positions based on this:

The chart looks bullish on all indicators.  Except MVO, every indicator supports a bull on energy for now.  These are positions to test the exists.  I took them , one 3 days ago and another one this morning on the dip.  I plan to exit on any sign of elevated sell volume on daily charts.

Based on volume charts, the bears are in control.  One of these days a light will strike one way or the other, but it looks like volume charts supports the idea of a strike on the down side.

Except energy, $ and gold, everything looks bearish.

Tomorrow if we hit that TL, I plan to take a short around 1334 ES. I will short IWM, RUA 2k.

For the short I will look at Mccellan vol osc on 1D $ and RUA3K and on buy/sell volume for both $ and RUA 3K

This is for now paper account as I need to go through a bear/ bull cycle to see if I am disciplined enough to take the signals as I see them.

Good Luck,

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Categories: Miss Market
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