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Archive for March, 2011

Confusion, not really

March 31, 2011 7 comments

A lot of people are confused by the recent rally: slow or small volume; market manipulation because GS is selling or buying to or from locals, a correction to the recent low is needed for a rally to be successful. All sort of mental masturbations, that we were victims from the start of this rally in 2009, are still with us or within us. As I said before what good is a correction if every blog out there knows the rules of when and how it will correct?

Another thing is the war. No matter what the president says, it is a war when the the planes are attacking military installations or another country. Look at yahoo financials and see in the past, when the US attacked military installations what happened on Wall street… The street likes the spending associated with wars.

Besides the war, the next thing to do is to look at $. The $ is the subject of a lot of commentaries, including Jim Rogers who is betting big that the $ will correct upwards from here. But in the end his bet is against what Beny may or may not do. In the end the big Jim Rogers is as clueless as us on Benny intentions. The question is , is a long $ right here a low risk entry?

Daily $:

The mighty $ looks like it is building a building a base here. It tries to correct but not successful. The sentiment is down, the bull cycle looks like it is ending and the volume is smaller and smaller. Usually smaller volume at the end of the range means something is brewing. So we are waiting for now to see which way the move is going. The volume may show us some clues, but for now, waiting is the game.

Rua 1D:

The stock market is bullish, all indicators are pointing UP and the rally looks healthy. The volume was smaller than weeks before, but come on, not that small. We are close to the high level, 1344 on SPX, so a small correction may happen around here before the bulls attack the mentioned level. Tomorrow is the month start and unemployment numbers so big moves in the morning are expected.

We already know that the PM sector moves somehow in sync with the market, so let’s look at the Gold 2D:

The 2 days chart, show a healthy rally in the PM sector, all indicators are pointing UP and the only things that worry me is the slow oscillator who is not elevated and the small bars volume for the last few days.

1Day:

On the 1day, PM looks like it wants to end this bull cycle. the sentiment is pointing down (not yet under 50%) and the buy volume is slowly going down. The sell volume stopped rising and is just making us aware of selling existence. Notice this though: the volume accumulation is still high, so even if the selling starts I think we will have time to see it. I think this volume accumulation in the history and oscillator may act as support in the next few days in case the smarts decide that down is the right move.

Let’s look at PM 60 min:

On the 60 min, we can notice the huge selling volume insertion at the end of the day. So we may expect a bear manifestation tomorrow morning. The 60 min was in bull cycle, so we may have a start of a bear cycle tomorrow. One detail though: in the past, these huge sell bars did not always act as the start of sell and of a new bear cycle. The today’s sell volume insertion, though, comes at the end of a bull cycle so it will probably act as the start of a bear cycle on the 60 min. For now the sentiment is pozitive for the bull, the selling volume was O (exception being the last red volume bar) and we still have enough volume accumulated on the history and oscilator to counter trend the big ugly red volume bar, tomorrow.

Oil and energy was UP today, so the market may start to price in a rally.

During the day I look once or twice at the instruments comparison. We had buying in the $ today but timid and without force.

And do not forget, Fool’s Day is tomorrow, good employment numbers may put pressure on gold and may push the $ UP.

I am calculating pivots on multiple timeframes. SLV is sitting on quarterly R2 at 36.11 , on yearly R1 at 35.50 and weekly pivot at 36.34. Why am I saying this? Because if SLV closes under 35.50 we may have a problem and I will bail out; until then no confusion, we are staying in position and waiting for Beny to decide what is best for us and for the world 🙂

Remember, trading is reacting based on rules not guessing or predicting.

 

Categories: Miss Market

Bought new unit of Sil

March 25, 2011 10 comments

This morning I bought a new unit of SIL at 28.11. Reason: the sell volume went to O on the daily.

I am prepared to add if Sil goes to 27.21 and 26.30.

Categories: Uncategorized

Silver margin was changed today

March 24, 2011 Leave a comment

The Silver margin was changed today. Looks like I can get a new unit tomorrow:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/and-clockwork-cme-hikes-silver-margins-halting-surge

So I got my wish of a retest so I can load. let’s see if I can execute my wish tomorrow….

 

Categories: Uncategorized

Situation Room

March 23, 2011 Leave a comment

Everything looks bearish, news, market, Portugal, etc. Most of the blogs expect a retest of the lows. And at the same time, even with all the bearish news, every blog expect the bull to continue. So if true then what is the point of revisiting the lows? It is a bull market or it is not? My guess is all depends on the mighty dollar.

Let’s see the charts:

The $:

As you can see the buying was timid, look at the today’s green volume bar. The sentiment is flat. Looks like everybody is tired of seeing the $ falling. But it is what it is. The candle shows indecision, but until the $ can close above 76.96, the decision is already made, $ is falling…

RUA2D:

The 2days RUA looks almost ugly. Why almost? Because : no buying volume, but the sentiment is flat, the sell bar volume for the last 2 days was small and the bear cycle is close to a big decision: a new bear cycle or a bull cycle? Let’s see what the RUA 1D says:

We had some buying for the last 4 days. The sentiment is flat, is like the market cannot make up her mind. The buying volume bar today was bigger than the volume Yesterday. The buy volume is almost crossing the selling volume and we may have a chance of a bull cycle.

Given what we saw on the chart for 2 days compared with 1 day, I think the buyers are timid and the sellers are waiting for an occasion to strike. We need more buying volume to declare the correction over.

Let’s see one interesting chart, Semis 1Day:

We can see that for the last few days, the SOX index did not fall and it was bought. we had 2 selling volume bars that did not had a lot of power.

The sentiment is at 54, we had a lot of indecision candles the last 5 days, the buying volume starts to show. My guess is that we are close to the start of a bull cycle in semis.

I may buy one semiconductor company tomorrow if we get closer to a buy/sell cross.

Let’s see the mighty GOLD. Gold 2days:

The Gold at 2 days looks like it will start a new bull cycle. All the signals look good for a bull.Why I said looks like? Because I dont like the size of the buying volume bars. The buying was there all right but it did not passed the selling bar volumes we had during the correction. Maybe tomorrow…

Gold 1 Day:

The gold 1 day looks like a classic bull. All indicators look good for bull, we got even good sized volume bars. WE did not got a breakout in gold Yet. We got one in silver.

I bought  a new unit of Sil today and if Silver retest happens at 36.70 I will buy another one.

In all Mrs Market looks like it needs time. The correction may happen in time, not necessary  in price. The sentiment in all charts I showed here is flat or positive.  Tomorrow Portugal may ask for a bailout and we are full of bad news but the price is not going down much. My guess is that a lot of money managers cannot decide if it is better to lose another 5-8% in a correction that will be eventually be bought or to go in $ and lose more in case the /dx loses the 75 value….

One question that I have in my mind: with the Japan situation we need more stuff to rebuild what was lost? Or we already lost a good size of economic demand that is gone probably for at least a few years.

Sometimes I hate news, is this a joke to them, look at this:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-up-on-japan-construction-hopes-2011-03-23

These are turbulent times and it is better to stick with clean signals. Gold was clean today, silver breakout happened. Let’s see if tomorrow the silver bulls can do it again…

Categories: Miss Market

New Unit of Sil – bought

March 23, 2011 Leave a comment

I bought a new unit of SIL at 27.45.
Silver did breakout.
If silver will come back to the old breakout level (36.74), I will buy another unit of SIL. Gold is close to breakout.
Let’s see how the retracement plays out, if any….
I will post charts AH.

Categories: Uncategorized

1 unit of SIL – bought

March 15, 2011 1 comment

During the carnage tonight, I looked at comparisons as Salad showed us (gold, es, $). This morning, the dollar showed that some big hand was selling and another big hand was buying es futures. The Midas at one day for SIL showed that Sil was closed to support. At the same time Sil bounced from Ichimoku daily area support.

I bought a unit of SIL at 24.71.

Charts later.

 

Categories: Uncategorized

Market is not safe – Bloodbath

March 10, 2011 3 comments

Looks like the selling broke one of the key levels: 130 on Spy. The market closed at the lows on big bearish volume. Steffan posted the charts for Rua. Let me show you the precious metals and $

Gold/Silver XAU 2 D:

It looks like a bear cycle started 2 days ago. The selling volume started and in maybe 2 days it may go over the buy volume. The selling bars were big and the sentiment started to go down (it is at 50 now). The hist. just went negative today and we need to wait at least 2 days to have an idea about how long this bear cycle will be. The momentum is close to go negative…

XAU 1D:

On the 1D, we can see the hist was smaller today, the sentiment closed at O (meaning negative) and the momentum is close to negative. The selling volume was high and surpassed the buying volume. It may happen to have a higher price tomorrow because of that smaller hist, but for now until the selling volume goes down I am not buying back my positions that I sold last week.

Let’s see the $.

As expected, the $ started a bull cycle and it is just at the TL. If it cannot cross the TL upward then maybe that was it for the correction in equities. For now the sentiment is looking upward and the momentum is green as well. The hist just went positive and the MVO just had a positive signal as well.

I think the $ will cross over on the other side for multiple reasons, reasons that are linked to the Spain downgrade and the middle east situation. But it does not matter what I think, this is poison. We need to see what the $ does and react in due time.

Salad started to build back his position, he has way more exp. Me, I want to learn to play safe, so I wait for the signals. It may be that I miss the train, but so be it. I saw this is one of the things a trader needs to learn , to miss the train.

Let’s see what tomorrow brings…

Categories: Miss Market

Trend or no trend


One of the big problems in trading is to decide if you are following a trend and on what time frame.

You can always go in and out of position (if you know how), ride the trend for better or for worse based on some parameters, ride the trend and at any warning reduce position to protect psychological or financial capital, or you can always trade around a core position, etc. There are a lot of variations and the choice, the real choice depends on the trader knowledege.

Me, I want to ride a trend and trade around a core position. Can I do that, NO. Because my knowledge is not that great as to know when to exit and when to enter. I am working towards that, but I am not there yet. For this reason I made a choice that at any warning to exit with some percentage of my position, just for protection. I may go back but that is not the goal, the goal is to protect myself. The warnings are:

  • chart based: if the selling volume goes up and over the buying volume on the 1D charts or if the osc or hist indicators go down or under the signal line.
  • chart based: if the sentiment, momentum osc go to extremes.
  • discretionary: if the USD starts to sprint or if there is more buying than selling volume on the 1D chart
  • discretionary: if Salad gives a warning.

On Friday, I sold half of my position based on Salad warning and based on the last days action: market went UP a lot (we just had a 90% UP day on Thursday) and on Friday the market went down a lot, trying to close the gap from Thursday. The market did not close the gap from March 2 (Thursday), which in itself is bearish on the market.

Let’s see the charts for Gold and silver:

Gold/Silver2D:

We may be at one of the points I put a red line on the chart.It means we may have a small correction from here (it may be now or 1-2 days from now). The blue arrows show some extreme levels or some extreme buying. Even if the price was high on Friday, the volume bar was red. So, this is one of the warnings. It may go up from here, I see that. For now, on the 2D charts it looks that we hit an extreme level.

Let’s see Gold 1D

On the chart I tried to find a pattern that was similar in the past in the past with the present situation. WE may be at the level I show with the 2 red arrows. We just had a cross on the MA 3 days ago and the buying shows extreme levels, levels where we may get a reaction. I would like to have a continuous rise on the price, but we saw that the volatility was back this week. The blue arrows show decreasing momentum and decreasing mvo osc.

Gold Silver 1D:

On the chart please see the elevated selling bar volumes on the last few days. The buying volumes bars were smaller. I tried to find patterns in the past (red vertical lines) that were similar with last 2 days action, but no luck. Probably I need to go further in the past to find similar patterns. The buying volume went on high, as high as we can say, overbought? I dont know, we will see.

One key of the analysis is to have no prediction, just a good analysis and act upon it.

Based on the charts until now, I would say we may have further upside for at least a day.

Let’s see 60 min.:

On 60 min, we see that on the last 60 min bull, the price did not hit the high as the previous bull. We see a lot of elevated selling volume bars, and the selling volume is still  elevated. The momentum was negative on the last price rise. the mccellan volume osc was negative with price rising (sign of distribution, or negative correlation)

I have another slow 60 min chart:

Take a look at the areas encircled in green. Last time, the price went down together with the other osc. On the second area in green we can see that the price went up, the momentum went down, the mccellan vol osc went down as well. Looks like a negative correlation to me.

On Steffan blog you have the RUA analysis, I dont need to put it here. I agree with his analysis.

I have one chart to show and that’s Financials daily. The market to go UP, we need financials to cooperate:

The red arrows shows that financials are bearish. The selling volume bars are higher than the buying volume bars, momentum and selling show that we did not end the correction.

We may end the correction next week, who knows, my job is to protect my money and to be able to see what the smarts are doing.

For now, we may go up for another day on the precious metals, but I think we may have a small correction coming on the metals.

I will go back into position if the market on Monday fills the gap on 1307 on /ES and shows buying power.

Now we are at unknown cross roads based on the fact that US$ is close to a cycle low. WE need to see what the reaction is there before reaching a definite conclusion .

A lot of people are saying, the gold is stretched to the upside (meaning short ). Others are saying: the breakout is already happened, we go to 50$ silver asap.

I dont know what will happen, I see warnings on the charts, I saw Salad gave a warning and I am waiting to see what Monday brings.

Another thing I noticed, the cooper had a higher low and a lower high compared with the last levels on the daily. That means indecision. I think the market needs the cooper to rally to go further upside.

The market does not seem healthy and unless there is a negative correlation between market and metals, I will say we may have small correction on Monday or Thursday for the metals. It is probably obvious that if the $ goes under the low level (76.61) on Monday, the market will go UP, but for now we just had an inside bar on the $ (daily) so who knows.

Let’s see.

I will post tomorrow about the personal positions progress.

Good luck.

Categories: Miss Market

New Unit SIL


Hi,

As expected there was a retest at the old resistance level. I bought a new unit of SIL at 27.50.

The precious metals looks good for now. Let’s see gold and gold/silver at 1D:

Gold looks good, the selling vol is at 0 and the MVO signal shows a positive start. The sentiment is at 70%. Both slow and fast osc are positive and growing.

gold/silver:

The silver has a lot of selling volume. Except that, all the other measurements look positive and growing.

Let’s see the dollar:

The USD selling continues , there is no real buying. Looks like nobody wants to have too many USD$.

Let’s see the stock market:

RUA1D:

The selling is starting to weaken. The sentiment is pointing upwards. There is still a lot of selling volume and there is not a lot of positive buying  volume.

I am sorry I cannot put signs on the charts, I will try and do it next time.

 

In all, it looks like there is a fight on the silver. A lot of shorts and a lot of buyers as well. Oil saw prices increases last days. It may be because of Lybia or Bahrain. Logic says this is the reason. At the same time, if $ goes down , I think a lot of smarts are trying to see where to allocate the money in a safe way.

For now I have 4 units of SIL.  This week I will update the Trades tab with the prices. I have the prices in the previous posts.

 

Categories: Miss Market

No new position in sil


Hi,

I wanted to buy a new unit of sil, but no luck. My order was not hit (it was just under the low of today). I guess tomorrow is a new day and maybe a new chance.
it is a mistake , and I probably should buy at the high, this is how money are made, buy in strength at highs.
I think silver may retest his breakout level and I may get a chance to enter there.

Categories: Miss Market